The Upset of the Century?

Issue: What does Tiger's loss in the WGC-Accenture Match Play tell us?

Short Answer: Not a whole lot.

Reasoning: The Accenture Match Play Championship is set up just like the NCAA basketball tournament.  There are 64 players, set up in a bracket-style golf tournament.  The winner of each match moves on to the next round.  Whomever wins six matches in a row, wins the tournament, and a boatload of money.  Most golf fans love this event because it is different than any other tournament.  In fact, the only other place one generally sees PGA professionals participate in match play, is in the Ryder Cup, which only takes place every two years (and the United States has been getting their butts handed to them over the last decade or so, which makes said match play not as fun to watch).  Plus, throwing in $10 and filing out a bracket with friends is quite fun, and, at the same time, quite impossible.  See, unlike the NCAA basketball tournament, where there is quite a large talent gap between a #1 seed and a #16 seed, the Accenture Match Play has no such talent gap.  The #16 seed in the match play can hardly be considered an underdog.

To wit, the four 1 v. 16 matchups at this year's event looked like this: (1) Lee Westwood v. (16) Henrik Stenson; (1) Phil Mickelson v. (16) Brendan Jones; (1) Martin Kaymer v. (16) Seung-yul Noh; and (1) Tiger Woods v. (16) Thomas Bjorn.  Although 3 of the #1 seeds moved on to the second round, it is not a guarantee.  How about some stats?  Total number of wins for the #1 seeds in 2011?  One.  Martin Kaymer at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship on the European Tour.  Total number of wins for the #16 seeds in 2011?  One.  Thomas Bjorn at the Commercialbank (not a typo) Qatar Masters on the European Tour.  Stroke average, combined, for the #1 seeds in 2011?  70.59.  Stroke average, combined*, for the #16 seeds in 2011?  71.25.  A total difference of .66 strokes per 18 holes.  So, unlike the NCAA basketball tournament, a #16 seed upsetting a #1 seed isn't really a big deal.  Or even out of the ordinary.  In fact, Tiger Woods is the only #1 overall seed to ever win the match play.  Six times a player seeded #14 or higher (14, 15, or 16) has won the match play, and only five times has a seed lower than #14 (1-13) won the tournament (Tiger has won 3 of them).  And, in 2002, Kevin Sutherland was a #16 seed and won the whole thing.

So, when Tiger Woods was "upset" by Thomas Bjorn in the first round on Wednesday, it didn't surprise me, and shouldn't have surprised anyone else either.  The only advantage a #1 seed has in this format is the "intimidation factor."  Playing against one of the best players in the world is more of a mental challenge than a physical challenge, in the game of golf.  In past years, those playing against Tiger stood no chance at winning because he had that killer instinct.  Not so much anymore.  At this point, is anyone afraid of playing Tiger Woods?  Absolutely not.  Thomas Bjorn was playing against the weakest #1 seed.  Sure, this is an upset, but in name only.  Plus, Bjorn has a win this year, and exudes the confidence that goes along with that.  Tiger hasn't been confident since a little fender-bender around Thanksgiving-time a year and a half ago.  I wrote about Tiger's return to competitive golf here, and I still hope he can come back and win.  It makes golf more fun to watch.  However, the loss to Thomas Bjorn shows me that him winning again may be farther off than I'd hoped.  Damn.

*The Accenture Match Play was Brendan Jones' first event of 2011.