March Madness Lessons

Issue: What have you learned so far from the first weekend of the big dance?

Short Answer: Please, read on...

Reasoning: No need for a long lead-in here.  Let's get right to it:

The Big East is, once again, the most overrated conference in the country - Now, before anyone starts getting all upset, I didn't say that the Big East sucks (although...).  I don't believe that.  In fact, the Big Ten is the only conference I thought may have been better than the Big East this year (turns out I was wrong there too).  Based on the metrics the selection committee uses, I believe all 11 Big East teams that made the dance, deserved to be there.  And, maybe the metrics is where the problem lies.  See, RPI is one of those metrics (Jay Bilas has said this should stand for "Really Poor Indicator") the committee uses.  Some think RPI (which actually stands for "Rating Percentage Index"...huh?) is actually the best indicator of how good a team is, which, is asinine at best.  RPI is made up of a team's winning percentage (25%), its opponent's winning percentage (50%), and those opponent's opponent's winning percentage (25%).  So, when Cincinnati plays Pittsburgh their RPI skyrockets.  But, it skyrockets even more because Cincinnati is getting credit for Pittsburgh also playing UConn and Georgetown and Notre Dame.  And, since all the media jocks the Big East like the cure for cancer lies somewhere inside the conference, all those teams are highly rated throughout the year.  As of today (3/22/2010) the Big East still has 10 teams in the top 39 in the RPI poll.  Most of them are sitting at home watching the tournament.  Let's take a game-by-game look at the Big East:

• #4 Louisville loses to #13 Morehead State (good start)
• #9 Villanova (who shouldn't have been in the tournament after losing their last 5 games of the year, but, the Big East bias lives) loses to #8 George Mason
• #6 Georgetown gets annihilated by #11 VCU
• #6 St. John's gets whooped by #11 Gonzaga
• Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, UConn, Syracuse, Marquette, and West Virginia actually make it out of the first round
• Round two (or, as the stupid NCAA calls it - Round three)
• #1 Pittsburgh (supposedly the best team in the Big East) loses to #8 Butler
• #6 Cincinnati loses to #3 UConn
• #5 West Virginia chokes against #4 Kentucky
• #3 Syracuse loses to #11 Marquette
• #2 Notre Dame gets embarrassed by #10 Florida State

Ladies and gentlemen, that leaves two Big East teams, out of 11, left in the tourney.  Most people have noticed that two of those teams were knocked out by other Big East foes.  First, if over 17% OF THE ENTIRE BRACKET comes from one conference, a few may have to square off against each other.  Second, all that tells me is if two Big East teams didn't square off to go to the Sweet 16, then, probably none would have made it.  Four single-digit seeded Big East teams lost to double-digit seeded teams.  Keep telling yourself this is because they beat up on each other all year, and they are too tired now.  20-year old kids don't get tired, and, if you can't get yourself up for a national championship run, then you are soft.  And so is the Big East.

Virginia Tech and Boston College got jobbed - Let me explain.  Every year one power conference that everyone thinks is great lays an egg (otherwise known as the Big East), and, one power conference that everyone thinks is not so good turns out to be damn good.  Pre-tournament, I thought this would be the SEC.  They were awful this year, and they seemed to fit the bill.  Turns out however, it was my former conference, the ACC.  Perhaps the best conference in the history of college basketball, the storied ACC only got 4 teams in the tournament this year.  And, Clemson, who was one of the "last 4 in," had to play their way into the tournament.  Clemson lost in the second (?) round to West Virginia after having them down by 10 in the first half.  Duke survived a scare, as did North Carolina, but Florida State looks like a contender after dismantling a Notre Dame team that I had going to the final game (sometimes the bias just seeps through people's skin - eff me).  Boston College was 21-13, 9-7 in the ACC; Virginia Tech was 22-12, 9-7 in the ACC; Clemson was 22-12, 9-7 in the ACC, and was the only one of the three to get in the big dance.  The ACC is now 7-1 in the tournament, which, to me, means the NIT got at least two teams that should have been in the real tournament.  Pretty sure Virginia Tech would beat Georgetown by 50.

The Southwest bracket is March Madness - In the first round alone, the #9, #10, #11, #12, and #13 advanced.  For the first time since the field expanded to 64 teams (1985) have three double-digit seeds advanced to the Sweet 16.  #10 Florida State (who actually led the nation in field-goal percentage defense, held opponents to the lowest field-goal percentage in the NCAA in 10 years (36%)), #11 VCU (who has to be the hottest team in the tournament after destroying Purdue), and #12 Richmond (who is only a #12 because the A-10 had a down year) all advanced to the Sweet 16.  Since Florida State plays VCU, one double-digit seed will reach the Elite 8.  And, if you tell me that Richmond can't beat Kansas, then you haven't been watching much basketball.

Unless they choke, Ohio State will win it all - Now, don't get me wrong, I can see them losing.  They obviously didn't go undefeated during the regular season.  However, every game from here on out is on a neutral court.  When teams don't have to go into a hostile environment, usually, the better team wins.  No one is more talented than the Buckeyes (yes, I say this with extreme prejudice - deal with it).  Every team left is great.  Any one of them can beat Ohio State on any given day.  No question.  But, I believe it is their tournament to lose.  Although, the way I pick brackets and handicap games, they will probably lose to Kentucky.  But I doubt it.