March Madness Lessons, Part II

Issue: How are your brackets looking?

Short Answer: Ha.  Ha.  Ha.

Reasoning: This could be the craziest NCAA tournament, ever.  And the following lessons have been learned:

This is the most improbable Final Four ever - My buddy Doug sent me an email yesterday that said a person at "Predict Machine" (neither of us know what this is) said that the odds of picking this Final Four, when putting all 68 teams into a computer generating program, were 1 in 93,297,507.  Now, I can't substantiate these odds (and I don't think Doug or "Predict Machine" really can either), but, to me, it seems a bit low.  I would think it's more like 1 in a googleplex.  Or worse.  However, I would be wrong (again).  On espn.com there were around 5.9 million brackets filled out (6 of those were by me).  And you know what?  Two people actually picked this Final Four.  No joke.  I'm sure one is a Butler alum and the other is a VCU alum, but hey, whatever.  Here is one (this guy is in first place), and here is the other (this guy (or girl) is in 6,343 place!).  CRAZY.  Here are some more crazy bracket stats* (remember, this is out of 5.9 million brackets):

• Only .00017% (1,023) had three Final Four teams correct (I'm betting most missed VCU);
• Only 2.1% had two Final Four teams correct;
• Only 27.6% had one Final Four team correct (I have one of these!  Picked UConn in my all Big East Final Four bracket (West Virginia, Louisville, and Pittsburgh were my other three teams - wonder what place that bracket is in?));
• All of this means that 70.3% of brackets filled out on espn.com now have exactly zero teams left;
• 0.6% (36,732) of brackets correctly picked Butler in the Final Four;
• 0.1% (5,791) of brackets correctly picked VCU in the Final Four;
• .0000325% (192) brackets correctly picked the VCU v. Butler national semifinal;
• 1.9% (112,489) of brackets correctly picked Kentucky v. UConn in the national semifinal;

You can't make this stuff up folks.  The madness this March is unmatched by any madness in any March ever.  And it's not even over yet.

Experience pays off in March - With the exception of VCU, every team left has serious experience.  Butler was in the final game last year, and came a half-court shot away from winning the national title.  They lost their best player (Gordon Hayward), but returned a senior leader in Matt Howard and a future NBAer in Shelvin Mack.  Plus, their #1 seed was Pittsburgh, and we all know how weak the Big East really was.  However, UConn did make it to the Final Four, thanks to their coach (who has made Final Fours (1999, 2004, 2009, and 2011) and won two national championships (1999 and 2004 (over my beloved Yellow Jackets)), their Big East tournament title (which gave them the momentum to run through the NCAA tournament), and the best player in the country (Kemba Walker - sorry Jimmer).  The Big East may be weak, but the hottest team from the Big East is still a national contender.  Then there is Kentucky who is led by John Calipari who has been here and done this before, with numerous teams (UMass Final Four, 1996; Memphis Final Four, 2008; Kentucky Final Four, 2011 - keep in mind though, both the UMass and Memphis Final Four appearances were vacated by the NCAA, so, Calipari has a lot of experience cheating as well).  He knows what it takes to get where they are now, and, he has some pretty talented players as well.

Brad Stevens is a stud - Look, I am one who has always believed coaching doesn't necessarily win you games, but it can certainly lose you games.  Brad Stevens has proved me wrong.  Two years in a row, he has taken what most would consider sub-par teams, to the national championship game.  In the last two NCAA tournaments Brad Stevens has more coaching wins than Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Bill Self, Jamie Dixon, Jim Calhoun, Thad Matta, etc.  After this year, no matter how Butler comes out of this tournament, Brad Stevens will have more leverage than any coach in history, to write his own ticket.  I think most division I schools would gladly fire their coach on the spot to have Brad Stevens.  The question then becomes, can Butler afford to keep him?  For their sake, I hope they can.  I would like to see Brad Stevens stay at Butler for his entire career and continue leading them back to the Final Four when no one believes they can do it.  Only time will tell though.

I was right!!! - Sort of.  In my first "March Madness Lessons" (posted here), I wrote the following: "Every team left is great.  Any one of them can beat Ohio State on any given day.  No question.  But, I believe it is their tournament to lose.  Although, the way I pick brackets and handicap games, they will probably lose to Kentucky.  But I doubt it." (emphasis added).  Now, if only I could truly start believing, that I truly suck at picking brackets and handicapping games, I could probably make myself some serious money.  But, as much basketball as I watch, I still believe I know what I am talking about.  Sad, really.

I believe UConn will play Butler for the national championship - Which means, undoubtedly, that Kentucky and VCU will square off for the national title.  Now, I need to go hop on a plane to Vegas.

 

*Stats taken from here.